The Trajectory of the Seniors Housing Market Recovery
The Seniors Housing market was one of the hardest hit rental housing types during the COVID-19 pandemic, which is intuitive seeing that Seniors housing populations were among the most vulnerable age groups. Prior to the pandemic, the Seniors Housing market was relatively healthy and stable and was adapting to moderating occupancy levels due to an influx of new supply. While conventional multifamily rentals saw greater impacts to rent levels, by comparison, Seniors Housing saw much greater changes to occupancy levels – a notable decrease of more than 10%.
The Seniors Housing market started to rebound in the second quarter of 2021 – the same time as the conventional multifamily rental market. Whereas the conventional market, on average, has recovered lost rents since the onset of the pandemic, the Seniors Housing market has continued to lag pre-pandemic occupancy levels.
In this paper, we examine the supply and demand characteristics of the Seniors Housing market over the next few years to trend occupancy rates back to a pre-recession average. Given what we know about the Seniors Housing market and based on historical demand and demographic trends over the next couple of years, we expect market conditions to improve. Post recovery, we look at demographic trends through the end of the decade and how they may affect Seniors Housing.